MIG Webinar - Ben Phillips & Mick McCarthy (Full video available)

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MIG COVID-19 mini-series Part II

Recorded via Zoom on Friday 24th April, 2020
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Ben Phillips
School of BioSciences, Faculty of Science, The University of Melbourne

The ten-day coronavirus forecast, data-driven science communication

Motivated by genuine concern that many countries were being caught flat-footed by the coronavirus pandemic, I built a website that gives a simple ten-day projection of case numbers under current growth rates, for every country.  The site also provides key metrics of growth, and case detection.  The site is updated daily, and the idea was to move us past the paralysis of daily shock and towards important action. I will step through the project’s (short) history and talk about what I have learned along the way, from technical stuff through to broader reflections on the scientific and public responses to coronavirus.
The current version of the site is here: http://covid19forecast.science.unimelb.edu.au/


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Michael McCarthy
School of BioSciences, Faculty of Science, The University of Melbourne

Tracking progress on containment of COVID-19

After seeing lots of reference to "exponential growth" of cases of COVID-19 and inspection of bends in curves to determine progress, I decided to look at the data myself. This talk describes those investigations. By looking at rates of growth as a proportion of the number of existing cases, changes in the progress towards curtailing new cases were more easily revealed. Plotting rates of growth against number of cases helps illustrate trajectories of different countries. Finally, excluding cases derived internationally suggests step changes in infection rates within Australia as different physical distancing measures were introduced.